Tuesday, January 28, 2020

There's no evidence the Saudis hacked Jeff Bezos's iPhone

There's no evidence the Saudis hacked Jeff Bezos's iPhone.

This is the conclusion of the all the independent experts who have reviewed the public report behind the U.N.'s accusations. That report failed to find evidence proving the theory, but instead simply found unknown things it couldn't explain, which it pretended was evidence.

How to decrypt WhatsApp end-to-end media files

At the center of the "Saudis hacked Bezos" story is a mysterious video file investigators couldn't decrypt, sent by Saudi Crown Prince MBS to Bezos via WhatsApp. In this blog post, I show how to decrypt it. Once decrypted, we'll either have a smoking gun proving the Saudi's guilt, or exoneration showing that nothing in the report implicated the Saudis. I show how everyone can replicate this on their own iPhones.

The steps are simple:
  • backup the phone to your computer (macOS or Windows), using one of many freely available tools, such as Apple's own iTunes app
  • extract the database containing WhatsApp messages from that backup, using one of many freely available tools, or just hunt for the specific file yourself
  • grab the .enc file and decryption key from that database, using one of many freely available SQL tools
  • decrypt the video, using a tool I just created on GitHub

Sunday, December 29, 2019

So that tweet was misunderstood

I'm currently experiencing the toxic hell that is a misunderstood tweet going viral. It's a property of the social media. The more they can deliberately misunderstand you, the more they can justify the toxicity of their response. Unfortunately, I had to delete it in order to stop all the toxic crud and threats of violence.

The context is how politicians distort everything. It's like whenever they talk about sea level rise, it's always about some city like Miami or New Orleans that is sinking into the ocean already, even without global warming's help. Pointing this out isn't a denial of global warming, it's pointing out how we can't talk about the issue without exaggeration. Mankind's carbon emissions are indeed causing sea level to rise, but we should be talking about how this affects average cities, not dramatizing the issue with the worst cases.

The same it true of health care. It's a flawed system that needs change. But we don't discuss the people making the best of all bad choices. Instead, we cherry pick those who made the worst possible choice, and then blame the entire bad outcome on the system.

My tweet is in response to this Elizabeth Warren reference to a story were somebody chose the worst of several bad choices:

My tweet is widely misunderstood as saying "here's a good alternative", when I meant "here's a less bad alternative". Maybe I was wrong and it's not "less bad", but nobody has responded that way. All the toxic spew on Twitter has been based on their interpretation that I was asserting it was "good".

And the reason I chose this particular response is because I thought it was a Democrat talking point. As Bernie Sanders (a 2020 presidential candidate) puts it:
“The original insulin patent expired 75 years ago. Instead of falling prices, as one might expect after decades of competition, three drugmakers who make different versions of insulin have continuously raised prices on this life-saving medication.”
This is called "evergreening", as described in articles like this one that claim insulin makers have been making needless small improvements to keep their products patent-protected, so that they don't have to compete against generics whose patents have expired.

It's Democrats like Bernie who claim expensive insulin is little different than cheaper insulin, not me. If you disagree, go complain to him, not me.

Bernie is wrong, by the way. The more expensive "insulin analogs" result in dramatically improved blood sugar control for Type 1 diabetics. The results are life changing, especially when combined with glucose monitors and insulin pumps. Drug companies deserve to recoup the billions spent on these advances. My original point is still true that "cheap insulin" is better than "no insulin", but it's also true that it's far worse than modern, more expensive insulin.

Anyway, I wasn't really focused on that part of the argument but the other part, how list prices are an exaggeration. They are a fiction that nobody needs to pay, even those without insurance. They aren't the result of price gouging by drug manufacturers, as Elizabeth Warren claims. But politicians like Warren continue to fixate on list prices even when they know they are inaccurate.

The culprit for high list prices isn't the drug makers, but middlemen in the supply chain known as "pharmacy benefits managers" or "PBMs". Serious politicians focus on PBMs and getting more transparency in the system, populist presidential candidates blame "Big Pharma".

PBMs negotiate prices between insurers, pharmacies, and drug makers. Their incentive is to maximize the rebates coming back from drug manufacturers. As prices go up, so do rebates, leaving the actual price people pay, and the actual price drug makers earn, unchanged. You can see this in the drug makers' SEC profit/loss filings. If drug makes are "price gouging", it's not showing up on their bottom line.

It's PBMs that have the market power. The largest PBMs are bigger than the largest drug manufacturers, as the Wikipedia article explains. They are the ones with the most influence on prices.

PBM's primary customer is insurance companies, but they'll happily do business with the uninsured. Free drug discount cards are widely available. There's also websites like GoodRX.com that do the same thing. You don't need to pay them money, or even sign up with them. Simply go to the site, search for that expensive insulin you need, and print out a free coupon that gives you 50% to 80% off at your local pharmacy.

The story cited by Elizabeth Warren claims the drug in question cost $275, but according to GoodRX, it can be gotten for $68.

This coupon is good for buying lispro at Walgreens in Georgia, maybe elsewhere
Mentioning PBMs is really weird. People haven't heard of them, don't understand them, so when you mention them, people don't hear you. They continue as if you've said nothing at all. Yet, they are the most important part of the debate over high drug prices in America.

The point wasn't to argue drug policy. That's the underlying misunderstanding here, that I'm arguing either a Democrat or Republican side of the health debate. Instead, I'm arguing against both Republicans and Democrats. I have little opinion on the issue other than I'd like to emulate well-run countries like Singapore or Switzerland. I'm simply pointing out that whenever I investigate politician's statements, I find inaccuracies, exaggerations, and deliberate deceptions.

Maybe I'm wrong and Warren's tweet wasn't exaggerated, but that still doesn't justify the toxic spew.

What's interesting about this is how those who most decry toxic behavior on Twitter were among the most toxic in their response. Toxicity isn't a property of what you do, but of which side you are on when you do it. Threats of violence are only bad when targeting "good" people, not when targeting bad people like me.

Friday, December 13, 2019

This is finally the year of the ARM server

"RISC" was an important architecture from the 1980s when CPUs had fewer than 100,000 transistors. By simplifying the instruction set, they free up transistors for more registers and better pipelining. It meant executing more instructions, but more than making up for this by executing them faster.

But once CPUs exceed a million transistors around 1995, they moved to Out-of-Order, superscalar architectures. OoO replaces RISC by decoupling the front-end instruction-set with the back-end execution. A "reduced instruction set" no longer matters, the backend architecture differs little between Intel and competing RISC chips like ARM. Yet people have remained fixated on instruction set. The reason is simply politics. Intel has been the dominant instruction set for the computers we use on servers, desktops, and laptops. Many instinctively resist whoever dominates. In addition, colleges indoctrinate students on the superiority of RISC. Much college computer science instruction is decades out of date.

For 10 years, the ignorant press has been championing the cause of ARM's RISC processors in servers. The refrain has always been that RISC has some inherent power efficiency advantage, and that ARM processors with natural power efficiency from the mobile world will be more power efficient for the data center.

None of this is true. There are plenty of RISC alternatives to Intel, like SPARC, POWER, and MIPS, and none of them ended up having a power efficiency advantage.

Mobile chips aren't actually power efficient. Yes, they consume less power, but because they are slower. ARM's mobile chips have roughly the same computations-per-watt as Intel chips. When you scale them up to the same amount of computations as Intel's server chips, they end up consuming just as much power.

People are essentially innumerate. They can't do this math. The only factor they know is that ARM chips consume less power. They can't factor into the equation that they are also doing fewer computations.

There have been three attempts by chip makers to produce server chips to complete against Intel. The first attempt was the "flock of chickens" approach. Instead of one beefy OoO core, you make a chip with a bunch of wimpy traditional RISC cores.

That's not a bad design for highly-parallel, large-memory workloads. Such workloads spread themselves efficiently across many CPUs, and spend a lot of time halted, waiting for data to be returned from memory.

But such chips didn't succeed in the market. The basic reason was that interconnecting all the cores introduced so much complexity and power consumption that it wasn't worth the effort.

The second attempt was multi-threaded chips. Intel's chips support two threads per core, so that when one thread halts waiting for memory, the other thread can continue processing what's already stored in cache and in registers. It's a cheap way for processors to increase effective speed while adding few additional transistors to the chip. But it has decreasing marginal returns, which is why Intel only supports two threads. Vendors created chips with as many as 8 threads per core. Again, they were chasing the highly parallel workloads that waited on memory. Only with multithreaded chips, they could avoid all that interconnect nastiness.

This still didn't work. The chips were quite good, but it turns out that these workloads are only a small portion of the market.

Finally, chip makers decided to compete head-to-head with Intel by creating server chips optimized for the same workloads as Intel, with fast single-threaded performance. A good example was Qualcomm, who created a server chip that CloudFlare promised to use. They announced this to much fanfare, then abandoned it a few months later as nobody adopted it.

The reason was simply that when you scaled to Intel-like performance, you have Intel-like liabilities. Your only customers are the innumerate who can't do math, who believe like emperors that their clothes are made from the finest of fabrics. Techies who do the math won't buy the chip, because any advantage is marginal. Moreover, it's a risk. If they invest heavily in the platform, how do they know that it'll continue to exist and keep up with Intel a year from now, two years, ten years? Even if for their workloads they can eke out 10% benefit today, it's just not worth the trouble when it gets abandoned two years later.

Thus, ARM server processors can be summarized by this: the performance and power efficiencies aren't there, and without them, there's no way the market will accept them as competing chips to Intel.

This brings us to chips like Graviton2, and similar efforts at other companies like Apple and Microsoft. I'm pretty sure it is going to succeed.

The reason is the market, rather than the technology.

The old market was this: chip makers (Intel, AMD, etc.) sold to box makers (Dell, HP, etc.) who sold to Internet companies (Amazon, Rackspace, etc.).

However, this market has been obsolete for a while. The leading Internet companies long ago abandoned the box vendors and started making their own boxes, based on Intel chips.

Making their own chips, making the entire computer from the ground up to their specs, is the next logical evolution.

This has been going on for some time, we just didn't notice. Most all the largest tech companies have their own custom CPUs. Apple has a custom ARM chip in their iPhone. Samsung makes custom ARM chips for their phones. IBM has POWER and mainframe chips. Oracle has (or had) SPARC. Qualcomm makes custom ARM chips. And so on.

In the past, having your own CPU meant having your own design, your own instruction set, your own support infrastructure (like compilers), and your own fabs for making such chips. This is no longer true. You get CPU designs from ARM, then have a fab like TSMC manufacture the chip. Since it's ARM, you get for free all the rest of the support infrastructure.

Amazon's Graviton1 chip was the same CPU core (ARM Cortex A72) as found in the Raspberry Pi 4. Their second generation Graviton2 chip has the same CPU core (ARM Cortex A76) as found in Microsoft's latest Windows Surface notebook computer.

Amazon doesn't care about instruction set, or whether a chip is RISC. It cares about the rest of the feature of the chip. For example, their chips support encrypted memory, a feature that you might want in a cloud environment that hosts content from many different customers.

Recently, Sony and Microsoft announced their next-gen consoles. Like their previous generation, these are based on custom AMD designs. Gaming consoles have long been the forerunners of this new market: shipping in high enough volumes that they can get a custom design for their chip. It's just that Amazon, through its cloud instances, is now of sufficient scale, that they can sell as many instances as game consoles.

The upshot is that custom chips are becoming less and less a barrier, just like custom boxes became less of a barrier a decade ago. More and more often, the world's top tech companies will have their own chip. Sometimes, this will be in partnership with AMD with an x86 chip. Most of the time, it'll be the latest ARM design, manufactured on TSMC or Samsung fabs. IBM will still have POWER and mainframe chips for their legacy markets. Sometimes you'll have small microcontroller designs, like Western Digital's RISC-V chips. Intel's chips are still very good, so their market isn't disappearing. However, the market for companies like Dell and HP is clearly a legacy market, to be thought of in the same class as IBM's still big mainframe market.

Thursday, September 26, 2019

CrowdStrike-Ukraine Explained

Trump's conversation with the President of Ukraine mentions "CrowdStrike". I thought I'd explain this.

What was said?

This is the text from the conversation covered in this
“I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike... I guess you have one of your wealthy people... The server, they say Ukraine has it.”
Personally, I occasionally interrupt myself while speaking, so I'm not sure I'd criticize Trump here for his incoherence. But at the same time, we aren't quite sure what was meant. It's only meaningful in the greater context. Trump has talked before about CrowdStrike's investigation being wrong, a rich Ukrainian owning CrowdStrike, and a "server". He's talked a lot about these topics before.

Saturday, August 31, 2019

Thread on the OSI model is a lie

I had a Twitter thread on the OSI model. Below it's compiled into one blogpost

Thread on network input parsers

This blogpost contains a long Twitter thread on input parsers. I thought I'd copy the thread here as a blogpost.

I am spending far too long on this chapter on "parsers". It's this huge gaping hole in Computer Science where academics don't realize it's a thing. It's like physics missing one of Newton's laws, or medicine ignoring broken bones, or chemistry ignoring fluorine.
The problem is that without existing templates of how "parsing" should be taught, it's really hard coming up with a structure for describing it from scratch.

Saturday, August 10, 2019

Hacker Jeopardy, Wrong Answers Only Edition

Among the evening entertainments at DEF CON is "Hacker Jeopardy", like the TV show Jeopardy, but with hacking tech/culture questions. In today's blog post, we are going to play the "Wrong Answers Only" version, in which I die upon the hill defending the wrong answer.

The problem posed is:
Apparently, people gave 21, 22, and 25 as the responses. The correct response, according to RFC assignments of well-known ports, is 23.

But the real correct response is port 21. The problem posed wasn't about which port was assigned to Telnet (port 23), but what you normally see these days. 

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Securing devices for DEFCON

There's been much debate whether you should get burner devices for hacking conventions like DEF CON (phones or laptops). A better discussion would be to list those things you should do to secure yourself before going, just in case.

These are the things I worry about:
  • backup before you go
  • update before you go
  • correctly locking your devices with full disk encryption
  • correctly configuring WiFi
  • Bluetooth devices
  • Mobile phone vs. Stingrays
  • USB