Infosec's inability to quantify risk

Infosec isn't a real profession. Among the things missing is proper "risk analysis". Instead of quantifying risk, we treat it as an absolute. Risk is binary, either there is risk or there isn't. We respond to risk emotionally rather than rationally, claiming all risk needs to be removed. This is why nobody listens to us. Business leaders quantify and prioritize risk, but we don't, so our useless advice is ignored.

An example of this is the car hacking stunt by Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek, where they turned off the engine at freeway speeds. This has lead to an outcry of criticism in our community from people who haven't quantified the risk. Any rational measure of the risk of that stunt is that it's pretty small -- while the benefits are very large.

In college, I owned a poorly maintained VW bug that would occasionally lose power on the freeway, such as from an electrical connection falling off from vibration. I caused more risk by not maintaining my car than these security researchers did.

Indeed, cars losing power on the freeway is a rather common occurrence. We often see cars on the side of the road. Few accidents are caused by such cars. Sure, they add risk, but so do people abruptly changing lanes.

No human is a perfect driver. Every time we get into our cars, instead of cycling or taking public transportation, we add risk to those around us. The majority of those criticizing this hacking stunt have caused more risk to other drivers this last year by commuting to work. They cause this risk not for some high ideal of improving infosec, but merely for personal convenience. Infosec is legendary for it's hypocrisy, this is just one more example.

Google, Tesla, and other companies are creating "self driving cars". Self-driving cars will always struggle to cope with unpredictable human drivers, and will occasionally cause accidents. However, in the long run, self-driving cars will be vastly safer. To reach that point, we need to quantify risk. We need to be able to show that for every life lost due to self-driving cars, two have been saved because they are inherently safer. But here's the thing, if we use the immature risk analysis from the infosec "profession", we'll always point to the one life lost, and never quantify the two lives saved. Using infosec risk analysis, safer self-driving cars will never happen.

In hindsight, it's obvious to everyone that Valasek and Miller went too far. Renting a track for a few hours costs less than the plane ticket for the journalist to come out and visit them. Infosec is like a pride of lions, that'll leap and devour one of their members when they show a sign of weakness. This minor mistake is weakness, so many in infosec have jumped on the pair, reveling in righteous rage. But any rational quantification of the risks show that the mistake is minor, compared to the huge benefit of their research. I, for one, praise these two, and hope they continue their research -- knowing full well that they'll likely continue to make other sorts of minor mistakes in the future.